Our Team is Under Death Threat

Dear all,

We welcome you to the Greater Caribbean Monitor (GCaM).

Yes, you read that title correctly.

This week, we received news that a group of Guatemalan narco-politicians had activated a plan to assassinate our President & Editor-in-Chief, Rodrigo Arenas. This is not one of those ambiguous threats narcos tend to send, but an active and confirmed plan targeting our leader. As you know, GCaM is a product of República Intelligence, the intelligence unit of República Media Group. Through our editorial products in Guatemala, we have long published reports identifying, by name, surname, and photograph, those congressmen and mayors who operate from within the State on behalf of drug traffickers. Some of them are narcos themselves; others are political operators, but they are all criminals nonetheless. This is why they want to silence us. But, as Rodrigo himself explained in a video denouncing the plan, we already know who they are and we know why they want to do it. But they will not stop us.

For the GCaM team, it has been a complicated week. Not because of the fear they think they instill in us. We are not afraid of them. What has been complicated is determining the best approach to remain faithful to our principles while protecting our lives. The decision has been unequivocal: speak truth to power. That is the leitmotif of the free press in the West. And the truth is that, in Guatemala since CICIG, power has been held by the narcos. Our intelligence reveals as much: more than 130 congressmen and more than 60 congressmen operate directly for the narcos. That is power, but free expression is power too. So we will continue speaking truth to power, whether they are narcos, politicians or, in this case, the convergence of both.

It also gives us great reassurance that this editorial priority of ours—removing narcos from power—is shared by U.S. hemispheric priorities. Uncle Sam is the principal ally of any Latin American country that wants to fight the narcos. This was reflected in the response from the U.S. Embassy in Guatemala, which spoke forcefully against this cowardly murder operation by Guatemalan narco-politicians. An ally, even, more committed to the cause than the Guatemalan government itself, from whom we are still waiting for a statement condemning this cowardly plan or, at the very least, some expression of solidarity; whether it be false or true. But more than their words, we expect action, not only for our safety, but for the future of the country. While the Guatemalan government remains silent, the U.S. acts. Pete Hegseth made that clear in Panama. Let them know, as Toby Keith once put it:

“Uncle Sam put your name at the top of his list, and the Statue of Liberty started shaking her fist, and the eagle will fly and it’s gonna be hell, when you hear Mother Freedom start ringing her bell. And it´ll feel like the whole wide world is raining down on you: brought to you courtesy of the Red, White, and Blue.”

But our vision will not be compromised. We are taking the appropriate precautions, but I want to use this space for one final reflection. Ultimately, it is God who protects us. We do not fear the evil we face, because evil does not exist. Evil is merely the absence of good. And “good” is God, in whom we trust and from whom we draw inspiration for every task we undertake. Evil does not exist, in the same way that cold is only the absence of heat and darkness is merely the absence of light. It is not in its nature to triumph. Cold cannot be switched on, nor can it actively spread; for cold to exist, heat must be absent, but it has no way of imposing itself. The same is true of darkness: all it takes is turning on the light to dispel the darkness. The same applies to evil. And that is why we are not afraid. That is why we will continue, because we know that we are on the right side of history, that good always triumphs: because it is not in the nature of darkness to defeat the light.

In this issue, you will find:

• Uncle Sam Put Narco-Politicians at the Top of His List

• Cartels Go Viral: From Narcocorridos to TikTok

As always, please feel free to share GCaM with your friends and colleagues. We all, at the GCaM team, wish you a good weekend, and we thank you for your support, now more than ever.

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Narco-terrorists and narco-politicians are the U.S.'s top priority in Hispanic America. Never has the war on drugs in America's backyard been so clear.

In perspective. Narco-terrorists have had a complicated week. One where their normal impune operations seem more endangered than ever before. Earlier this week, narco-politicians put a price on Rodrigo Arenas'—the outlet's President & Editor-in-Chief—head. This happened after a long coverage of the infiltration of criminal structures within the Guatemalan politics, both at the congressional and municipal levels. This was not merely a threat, but a well documented and structured active plan to kill the man and silence any type of voice that denounces how deeply infiltrated political institutions are. República did its duty and denounced the plan, but then something unexpected—for them—happened.

• The U.S. Embassy in Guatemala replied to República's delation, stating: “The news that certain politicians linked to drug trafficking in Guatemala are attempting to keep their illicit activities in the shadows is alarming, but not surprising.”

• “Ahead of the 2027 elections, they should know the following: the United States has zero tolerance for drug traffickers and those who provide them with political cover. We will stand firm against those who use political power to protect criminal interests.”

• Later that week, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth spoke to the world from the Americas Counter Cartel Coalition Conference in Panama. The message has been loud and clear for a while, but never as transparent and as forceful as it became this week.

Between the lines. What emerged from Panama was not another declaration of cooperation in the decades-old war on drugs. Washington is changing the category of the enemy. Cartels are no longer being treated merely as criminal organizations whose members must eventually be arrested, extradited and prosecuted. Hegseth described designated organizations as the “ISIS and al Qaeda of the Western Hemisphere” and presented Operation Southern Spear as the model for what comes next: find, fix and finish. That distinction changes everything.

• For decades, the political protection surrounding organized crime was one of its greatest strategic advantages. Cartels could lose shipments, gunmen and even leaders while preserving the political ecosystems that allowed their businesses to regenerate.

• Mayors, congressmen, security officials and local operators could provide access, information or institutional protection while remaining several degrees removed from the cocaine itself.

• The emerging American doctrine attacks precisely that separation. Washington is increasingly describing the cartel, its territorial infrastructure, and the political structures enabling it as components of the same security threat.

Real-life effects. Ecuador has already become the first coalition country to conduct combined kinetic operations with the United States against narco-terrorist targets. Honduras and Guatemala have invited American participation in combined operations. Jamaica is developing a new military partnership for the Caribbean. Operation Southern Spear has spent almost a year attacking the maritime architecture of the drug trade, while its mission is now being transferred to SOUTHCOM’s newly established Joint Task Force Western Hemisphere. Then came Colombia.

• Only days after Abelardo de la Espriella inaugurated an entirely new political era in Bogotá, Colombia became the coalition’s nineteenth member.

• His government has already requested American participation in joint military operations against narco-terrorist organizations and signed an access, basing and overflight agreement with Washington.

• The significance is difficult to overstate. The country that spent four years experimenting with Petro’s Total Peace is now preparing to hunt those organizations alongside the United States.

Why it matters. The Americas Counter Cartel Coalition is becoming something considerably larger than a counternarcotics initiative. Regional governments are assigning responsibilities, developing operational plans, and building the legal and military infrastructure necessary for combined action. PANAMAX simultaneously brought thousands of personnel from across the hemisphere to Panama to practice precisely the capabilities that such an architecture requires.

• Hegseth placed all of this explicitly under Trump’s corollary to the Monroe Doctrine. The United States, he argued, will no longer tolerate either narco-terrorist structures or hostile foreign actors establishing strategic power inside its hemisphere.

• That creates a profoundly different environment for Latin America’s narco-politicians. The old calculation depended upon ambiguity. A politician could cooperate with criminal structures while betting that the consequences would remain domestic—an investigation, an electoral controversy, perhaps sanctions, or an eventual extradition request.

• But once Washington conceptualizes narco-terrorism as a hemispheric national-security threat—and builds a coalition designed for military action against it—the cost of providing political protection rises dramatically.

Why it matters most. The Embassy’s warning in Guatemala therefore matters far beyond República. It specifically mentioned politicians who provide drug traffickers with “political cover” and, crucially, placed the warning in the context of the 2027 elections. Those words arrived during the same week in which Washington told the hemisphere that the era of treating cartels exclusively as a policing problem is over.

• For years, Washington’s war on drugs suffered from a fundamental contradiction: the United States pursued traffickers while tolerating political systems in which their protectors could survive.

• The Trump administration is now attempting to erase that distinction.

In conclusion. The emerging doctrine is considerably simpler. Cartels threaten American national security. Governments willing to destroy them will receive military support. Governments willing to fight alongside Washington will receive even more. And political actors who protect those organizations should no longer assume that a congressional seat, mayor’s office, party structure, or government connection will place them beyond American reach.

• The United States is rebuilding its security architecture in the Western Hemisphere around an old principle with a radically expanded definition: America’s backyard cannot be allowed to become a sanctuary for forces that threaten the United States.

• For narco-terrorists, that means the open sea is becoming smaller, their territory more vulnerable and their organizations increasingly legitimate military targets.

• For the politicians protecting them, the warning delivered from Guatemala to Panama this week is even more personal. Uncle Sam is watching.

Being a public figure in Mexico is a dangerous affair. Content creation is no different.

Extra, extra. Last week, social media influencer César Gastélum was shot and killed during a livestream in the city of Culiacán, Sinaloa. He is one of around 20 influencers that have been murdered in Mexico over the past two years. These increasingly public murders not only exemplify how prevalent violence has become, but also how organized crime continues to permeate all aspects of life in Mexico.

• The boundary separating Mexico’s criminal underworld from its ordinary economic and cultural life is becoming increasingly difficult to identify.

In perspective. Violence in Mexico is not a new phenomenon. It has been a concern since the 1980s when criminal groups organized into distinct territories. As production and distribution of drugs increased, they began fighting each other for territory and access to different markets. And as cartels have expanded their power, their methods to achieve that growth have expanded as well. Social media, with its mass adoption and influence, presents an opportunity to extend their reach. Criminal groups often pair with influencers and encourage them to show off a lavish lifestyle. Experts believe this kind of content can function as a form of recruitment, presenting cartel life as aspirational.

• Cartels are no longer competing exclusively for trafficking corridors or local markets; they are also competing for attention, admiration and recruits. The ability to make the narco lifestyle desirable can therefore become another instrument through which criminal organizations reproduce themselves.

• Social media has very little regulation in Mexico, so cartels often use influencers as avenues for money laundering. There are currently 64 influencers who are under investigation for their alleged role in these schemes. The relationship between cartels and these influencers is hard to prove directly, but the use of gang symbols and music glorifying narcos in their videos is widely read as a sign of support.

• It is not the first time that cartels have paired with pop culture figures. Starting in the 1970s, narcos started working with bands who sang “narcocorridos” (songs glorifying or talking about the exploits of narcos). Some of these groups were directly financed by cartels; others were used for laundering, much like today’s influencers.

Yes, but. Not all the targeted influencers have friendly relationships with organized crime. Some have taken on the role of local journalists, reporting on violence and corruption in their communities, becoming targets for that reason. Mexico is the second most dangerous country in the world for journalists. Attacks on these influencers fit into a wider pattern of targeted attacks against media professionals. It is possible that some content creators had no links to organized crime and were killed by cartels as a display of power.

• The same digital ecosystem can simultaneously produce cartel promoters and cartel watchdogs: one can amplify their cultural influence while the other threatens the secrecy and impunity on which their operations depend.

• Violence against influencers can therefore serve two purposes at once—punishing unwanted scrutiny while broadcasting the consequences of challenging cartel authority to everyone watching.

Why it matters. The number of murdered influencers is small compared to the overall toll of violence in Mexico, but it reveals how thoroughly organized crime has infiltrated everyday economic and social life. In an effort to increase their revenue and launder money, cartels have also moved into the booming avocado industry, illegal logging, and even music promotion. Influencers present another, potentially even more dangerous, opportunity— not just because of their potential reach, but also because it shows just how bold and dangerous cartels have become.

• There are no statistics on whether recruitment efforts through influencers work. Regardless, they have incredible reach. César Gastélum, the most recently killed influencer, had over 600,000 followers on TikTok.

• This reach, coupled with the public murder of high-profile individuals, implies that cartels are no longer afraid to carry out killings in public, physically or virtually. There is little fear of repercussions.

• The more cartels manage to embed themselves across different industries and platforms, the harder it becomes to dismantle these organizations.

In conclusion. Up to this point, cartels mostly participated in the fringes of society. This doesn’t mean that people were not affected by them; on the contrary, they have harmed communities for decades. However, they generally kept to the margins. Social media, on the other hand, is an incredibly public platform. The fact that clandestine organizations are willing to promote their organizations and do business on such a public platform is telling. They are no longer trying to stay hidden.