Banana Republic Conspiracy Theory

Dear all,

We welcome you to the Greater Caribbean Monitor (GCaM).

Remember how a few weeks ago we told you that our team was facing death threats? Well, the story has continued to unfold, and now its protagonists, fearful of the wrath of the authorities investigating them, have allowed their imaginations to run wild… a little too wild. Roberto Arzú García-Granados—Guatemala’s quintessential potential narco-candidate—under investigation in both Guatemala and the United States for leading the plot to assassinate Rodrigo Arenas and República’s editorial team, has moved from premature electioneering into the realm of conspiracy theories, knowing that justice is closing in on him.

Having reached the point of no return with Washington, which is aware of his plot and his ties to drug trafficking, he decided to appear on a live program and accuse the Trump Administration of plotting electoral fraud in Guatemala. He went so far as to compare himself to Trump and to Bukele, claiming that the United States wants to prevent him from running for office, all because he lost his visa. Now, the narco-politicians fear for their power, and Arzú García Granados’ desperation makes that clear.

The accusation is clear: if the United States takes action against Arzú García-Granados over the attack he planned, he will portray it as part of the banana-republic-style delusion he has been spreading. The conspiracy theory is a telling sign of the times: the Trump and Rubio era, in which the narcos are finding themselves increasingly cornered and desperate throughout the Western Hemisphere. Arzú García-Granados is no exception.

In this issue, you will find:

• Arzú’s Washington Delusion

• Is It The Greatest Deal in Oil History?

As always, please feel free to share GCaM with your friends and colleagues. We all, at the GCaM team, wish you a good weekend, and we thank you for your support, now more than ever.

If you’ve been forwarded this newsletter, you may click here to subscribe.

Guatemalan elections have turned into a narco-show involving assassination plots and conspiracy theories, and at the heart of them lies a man called Roberto Arzú García-Granados.

In perspective. Guatemalan presidential hopeful Roberto Arzú García-Granados has spent years arguing that the country’s political and business establishment is determined to keep him out of power. In a special August 30 broadcast of his online program Disruptivo, however, he took that argument considerably further. This time, his theory reached Washington—and the immediate orbit of Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

• Over the course of a lengthy live broadcast, Arzú described what he portrayed as an influence operation financed by powerful Guatemalan interests to manipulate the 2027 presidential election.

• According to his account, businessmen, political operators, and figures he associates with Guatemala’s so-called “pacto de corruptos” have turned to lobbyists in Washington after losing their ability to control key institutions at home.

• The objective of the plot, he claimed, is to exert pressure against candidates who threaten their interests, through the United States, including Arzú himself.

Between the lines. The conspiracy theory emerged after República identified Arzú as one of the prospective candidates it linked to narcopolitical networks surrounding the CABAL party ahead of Guatemala’s next election. The confrontation escalated sharply when Rodrigo Arenas, República’s president and editor in chief, publicly denounced that a plot existed to assassinate him and later identified Arzú among the political figures involved. Arzú has denied the accusations and responded by filing legal complaints of his own, portraying Arenas’s allegations as part of the broader effort to eliminate him politically.

• The alleged assassination plot is now the subject of investigations involving authorities in both Guatemala and the United States.

• As a result of the investigation, the United States revoked Roberto Arzú's visa, something he has been ambiguous about when it comes to either confirming or denying.

• The visa revocatory provided the immediate backdrop for Arzú’s August 30 broadcast and his subsequent claims of a Washington-based operation against his candidacy, as a way to justify any further U.S. actions against him.

How it works. At the center of Arzú’s conspiracy theory is Steve Bovo, whom he identified as a Miami-based lobbyist associated with Corcoran Partners. Arzú claimed that Bovo receives USD 400 000 a year from interests linked to Rodrigo Arenas, other businessmen and, he suggested, political actors belonging to the “pacto de corruptos”. He offered no evidence during the broadcast establishing that those parties were jointly financing such an operation. The significance Arzú attached to Bovo, however, came from another relationship: his wife.

• Arzú identified Viviana Bovo, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary in the U.S. State Department’s Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs. He then alleged that Steve Bovo’s connection to his wife provided the direct route to Marco Rubio.

• Through that channel, Arzú said, denounced Washington of promoting a narrative intended to “discredit, defame” and attack political figures inconvenient to them.

• Arzú placed other Washington figures within the same sprawling narrative, including former Guatemalan ambassador Manuel Espina, former ambassador Julio Ligorría, Rep. María Elvira Salazar and State Department official Ana Quintana as part of this plot.

Why it matters. The broadcast eventually revealed Arzú's derailed conspiracy theory and accusations against the Trump Administration. In his telling, the purpose is to feed enough information to Washington for the United States to politically disqualify him in Guatemala. He repeatedly argued that his opponents, having lost control of domestic institutions capable of keeping undesirable candidates off the ballot, now want that pressure to “come from over there.” What this entails is what he literally described as a U.S.-promoted electoral fraud.

• Arzú recalled the Colorado Supreme Court’s 2023 decision finding Donald Trump ineligible for the state’s 2024 Republican primary ballot under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment.

• Addressing Quintana directly, he said the campaign he claims is underway against him amounts to “the same thing they were doing to your president.”

• He also compared his experience with Nayib Bukele’s struggle to participate in El Salvador’s 2019 election, presenting all three cases as attempts by entrenched interests to eliminate threatening candidates before voters could decide their fate.

In conclusion. By comparing himself to Trump and Bukele, Arzú accused Marco Rubio and Viviana Bovo of orchestrating an electoral fraud from within the State Department, an accusation that would later serve him as an alibi to justify any measure taken by the U.S. against him. What he forgot to mention was the fact that those actions—like his visa revocatory—are not derived from any derailed conspiracy theory but by a federal investigation that shows him as the leader of a plot to murder a businessman and journalist.

• Yet his accusation is consequential precisely because of where he chose to place it. By invoking Trump’s 2024 ballot battle, Arzú recast his dispute with political opponents in Guatemala as a warning to Washington.

• If Washington is to act against him for his involvement in the assassination attempt, Arzú will respond by continuing to defame the Trump Administration and Marco Rubio by accusing them of interfering with Guatemalan elections, a conspiracy theory worthy of a dark web forum.

“The greatest oil deal in history!” That is what Trump is calling a recent oil deal between the United States and Venezuelan governments. But the deal might not be as clear-cut, and not everyone agrees with how it is being carried out.

In perspective. The agreement signed by Donald Trump and Venezuela’s interim president, Delcy Rodriguez, would give the United States the rights to 17 oil fields, holding more than 65 B barrels of proven oil reserves. Once operational, these oil fields are expected to produce around 1.5 M barrels per day. Both Trump and Rodriguez insist that the deal is necessary to revive Venezuela’s large but crippled oil industry.

• The U.S. would not be a direct investor. Instead, it will partner with North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP), which has to raise USD 100 B in investments to develop new oil infrastructure in Venezuela.

• As part of the deal, the Pentagon’s Office of Strategic Capital will have a 35% ownership stake in NABEP, and the U.S. will also be guaranteed to buy 20% of the output of the oil fields.

• Rodriguez insists that Venezuela will retain ownership of its natural resources while using American capital and technology to rebuild its oil industry. She says the deal will bring in an estimated USD 209 B a year to the country.

Why it matters. Venezuela has one of the largest proven oil reserves in the world. The country has long relied on its oil industry to bolster its economy. In recent years, U.S. and allied sanctions, along with years of mismanagement under Chavista governments, have made it harder to export oil. The agreement could open the floodgates, giving the U.S. control of one of the world’s most important resources, and the rest of the world an alternative to Middle Eastern oil.

• Trump and Rodriguez’s deal puts vast oil reserves directly under the control of the U.S. government. With such control, the White House would be able to use this oil as a tool of leverage, similar to what OPEC countries have done in the past.

• With no end in sight for the war in Iran, a big part of the world’s oil is still stuck on one side of the Strait of Hormuz. It will be years before Venezuela starts exporting oil at a significant rate, but jumpstarting production offers an alternative if Hormuz remains closed or becomes a political tool for Iran or other countries.

• Their corrupt administration has isolated Venezuela from most of the world, gutting its economy. This agreement presents an opportunity to start opening the country again for foreign investment and gives the country a much-needed economic lifeline.

Between the lines. Throughout his second administration, Trump has been a vocal proponent of increasing oil production. He has gone so far as to incentivize American companies to start operating in Venezuela, with little success so far. Now, with oil prices climbing at home, U.S. stockpiles draining, and midterm elections coming up, Trump needs to get some semblance of stability and a boost in popularity. Delcy Rodríguez, meanwhile, has strong incentives of her own: she took power as Venezuela’s interim president after Nicolás Maduro was captured by U.S. forces earlier this year, and staying close to Washington may be central to keeping her position.

• The oil deal seems like an attempt to achieve both of their goals. When announcing the deal, Trump said that it would lower gas prices. Experts agree, however, that it is going to take years before we see gas prices drop.

• The deal also benefits Rodríguez directly. By currying favor with Washington, she’s likely to remain in power longer. Venezuela has a history of nationalizing private-sector assets when it sees fit—keeping Rodríguez in charge would help guarantee the deal goes through and that the U.S. retains control of the oil fields.

Yes, but. Not everyone is on board with the plan. Politicians in both the United States and Venezuela are concerned about the lack of transparency around the agreement, including basic details that don’t line up. The White House describes the concession as a 100-year lease; Rodríguez, in her own televised address, described it as a 25-year project, in line with Venezuelan law, which limits such concessions to 25 years. There are also concerns that past and present allies of the Chavista regime—including the owner of NABEP—are spearheading the deal, and that the current government might do everything possible to remain in power, including postponing elections.

• Juan Pablo Guanipá, a prominent member of the Venezuelan opposition, said that while foreign investment is essential to reviving the country’s economy, doing so under the current government would be like “building a skyscraper on clay.”

• NABEP is led by Alejandro Betancourt, who has been the subject of investigations by U.S. and European authorities on corruption and money-laundering offenses following past dealings with the Venezuelan government.

• There is also fear among Venezuelans that a new government might want to change certain aspects of the deal or reject it altogether. Trump's administration will end in 2029, and there is no telling who will inherit the oversight over Venezuela.

In conclusion. “The greatest oil deal in history” promises a great deal: an economic lifeline for revitalizing Venezuela, cheaper gas, and geopolitical leverage for the U.S. But the lack of transparency around the agreement and the uncertainty surrounding the people responsible for carrying it out make the whole thing seem more like a Hail Mary from Caracas.

• This deal holds a double-edged sword: an opportunity for prosperity in Caracas or a weapon that, if wielded properly by Caracas, could stabilize the Chavista regime once Trump leaves office.

• Time will tell whether it becomes a consequential deal, changing how global politics and economics function, or remains another empty hope for a country that has already gone through so much.